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重读2018:回顾时间之河中的风暴事件

    温家宝:20世纪90年代,人们对尼采、弗洛伊德理想的向往,转变为时代所经历的市场经济与社会变革思潮。哈耶克的作品在中国很受欢迎。我父亲买了一本书,书架上已经是一个脾气暴躁的女仆了。五年前,“哈耶克热”在快节奏的城市生活中已经消失了。与个人利益直接相关的直接实践讨论和辩论背离了研究市场法的基础。当时,复旦大学经济学教授魏森发出重读哈耶克的邀请。新书《重读哈耶克》试图强调哈耶克的理论、市场经济和社会秩序。划清了界限。同样,当个人电脑互联网在中国兴起十年,实体经济正受到这种模式的挑战时,人们广泛地讨论了互联网公司运营的理论基础,如他们的商业模式、公司利润等等,尽管有时这种讨论会采取严重的地质怀疑的形式。n作为一种外部形式;问题是网络经济现在正处于资本狂欢节。颠覆泡沫盛宴的方向,仰望星空,已成为一个夸大的商业基础问题,但它是2018大经济环境衰退的重要诱因。回顾2018年底,我们发现,在时代的高潮中,我们不断地寻找我们面前的绳索。正如中国互联网在这轮资本衰退中不适当的沉默一样,冷静和理性就像两个交叉的铰链,不仅固定了我们的步态,而且限制了我们向前思考的动力。在过去的一年里,中国的商业故事试图以各种各样的场景再现——可能以概率为基础,而试图重新获得对互联网商业的批评的努力,大部分时间就像登陆敦刻尔克海滩的炸弹一样,都失败了。结果,我们的身体已经过了2018年,但我们的心智仍然处于更早的年龄。现在必须认识到,商法发展的必要条件和基础,那些过时的“辩证思维”思想只能在关键的讨论中,而后悔错过了评价重要机会的窗口。所以我们需要重读2018。我们需要回到熟悉的陌生的河流,驶入过去的风暴中心。我把这些眼光风暴总结为:价值平衡、资源重组、商业秘密。价值平衡:滴水经济学价格歧视是一种商业现象。薛兆峰在《经济学通论》中说,有些政治错误是真实的,我们一直喜欢实行多数暴力的思想,但是我们仍然认为我们正在推行所谓少数服从多数的民主。应该这样,当我们谈论价值分配的平衡时,这是一个基于经济学的理性解释。它不应该受到社会学的道德压力甚至审判。当我们试图扭转价值分配规律时,惩罚就会到来,它通常会采取潜在危机的形式,最终形成一个爆炸性的高压环境。2018,程伟犯了许多战略错误,其中一些造成了严重后果。生命的传递所带来的反思,不仅在于积极的产品功能和定位的变化,还在于一个简单的商业命题:谁绑架了液滴的价值?换言之,更简单的说法是滴滴答答的企业决策来自于商业思维或市场威胁。虽然市场是企业创造的价值的接受者,但如果我们不能抵挡外界的一些批评,我们就会改变过程,陷入企业价值失衡的泥潭。例如,一个接一个的高峰价格上涨。正如我多次说过,价格的高涨是合理的,没有比价格分配更直接、更有效的分配。它通过对需求强度和价格水平的区分,为需要紧急用车的人提供最有效的解决方案,这是非常公平的。市场上的另一种声音批评说,雨天和高峰期是大量的用户需要使用他们的汽车的时候;出租车距离太远和太近,它们只是用户的选择,并且价格上涨缺乏合理性。但事实上,只有控制物价的上涨和下跌,才能从根本上有效地解决汽车少、人多的问题,为人民提供相应的通勤服务。人们常说,“大购物者”似乎在说,随着市场规模的扩大,游戏的服务水平也应该保持在一个较高的水平。但事实往往是惊人的,“大客户”是一种平衡能力一定的条件下,最好的价值,因为资源有限,企业往往不能保证他们总是提供完整的配套服务,为每个用户,同时增加资源的投入是在矛盾与边际价值递减。也就是说,在企业发展的中后期阶段,投入更多的资源不再有经济上的优势取得的收入。使企业获得更高的经营效益,办法是向高价值用户选择性地提供服务。这是不承认“骗子”在所有的情况下的合理性,但要说市场的话语并不总是指向价值平面的几何中心。Sometimes it will lead to the imbalance of enterprise value in the "populism". After experiencing the malignant accidents rarely seen in the Internet industry, droplets have entered a long period of renovation, and the focus of development has changed from speed and scale to safety and compliance without any doubt. It is ridiculous that in the early years, the global travel industry was in full swing, and it was also the model representative of Chinas entrepreneurship and innovation. Pushing drops into the downward trajectory is not at all safe, but the weakness of decision-making exposed by the peak price hike in public relations events - the minority is subordinate to the majority, which is most likely to evolve into the "tyranny" of the majority. Droplets show panic in high-price events, which means that they have not done any in-depth thinking and decision-making preparation for value balance. In this case, Droplets product strategy is almost tired of "coping" rather than "changing". 当危机不会发生,如果你在薄冰上行走,幸运快乐,墨菲定律最终将把自己滴悲伤。九月,程伟说,在2018上半年,他已经失去了超过40亿元,包括补贴和奖励乘客和司机117亿8000万元,2017达到总量的65%。在太平洋的另一边的苹果是最好的球员的价值平衡。In the mockery voice of users about products of past dynasties, Apple has repeatedly created new records of turnover. By contrast, there are powerful product directors, but less intelligent "product managers" - users do not know what they want, simply follow their voices of opposition, follow the response without handling, can only go to the valley of value collapse. Congratulations are at the door and mourning is at the gate. Putting security first can bring legitimacy to business compliance and perhaps restore the trust of users. Both could happen in 2019, but neither can be overestimated. We should do this: we would rather summarize the rules of economic system allocation and operation "after the event", even if it risked being "washed" hat, it would never be willing to repeat the wrong business conclusions and watch the value balance tilt. 资源重组:OFO失去。人们应该尊重精英政治。另一个事实是政治不正确,但从未听轮胎是所有所谓的“讨论”协商,无论具体的现实,仅仅是形而上学的民主的旗帜下。马化腾最近的评论对动力学在他的朋友圈,指出所有的崩溃的根本原因的投票权。海德格尔,存在主义的先驱,提出“人应该诗意地栖居在这片土地上”。Neil Bozmann的娱乐至死等作品也指出目前的文化娱乐状况在后工业时代。对现实社会的启示是,价值创造与价值的消费不平等的枷锁,多数用户需要一些用户价格。价值供给和集权是资源优化配置的最佳方式。但必须承认的是,它保持绝对的智慧和理性是特别困难的,在瞬息万变的商业世界和危险的头精英创新和坚韧,如果企业想解决发展问题的能力,他们必须交换的民主权益部分在目前的发展战略轨道的稳定多数;另一方面,他们必须进入动荡的互联网。半田,或从消费互联网产业网络,其概念的启示信仰的飞跃需要长期和持续的思考。萨盖,英国人提出了看法:如果只有一个表,你可以知道它是什么时间;如果你有两个或更多的手表,你不能确定它是什么时间。不仅可以两只手表不能告诉一个人更准确的时间,但他们可以制造混乱。这是一个事实,更多的产品创新和丰富的功能,加上企业的战略,和简单直接的信息传输将成为一个极为复杂的游戏,如果企业理论不能维持渗透稳定的节奏,市场将获得较低的信噪比。因此,企业决策需要保持足够的“自信”甚至愿意采取一定的“自负”的风险,而且还应该继续保持一个单一的输出因子,这种控制信号源和信号源频率稳定的努力,展示企业的共识的内在爆发力 guidance, resource reorganization. In 2018, Xiaohuang lost the ability to restructure its resources. In 2016, Dai Wei believed that ofo, rooted in campus operation, had a clear model and began to make profits. 因此,放大的投资建议并没有影响Dai Wei的判断。在是否应进入市方向的问题,腾讯曾多次劝说而进入城市,这遭到Dai Wei的拒绝。腾讯在Mobai投资,相反,它允许而错过腾讯流量池的窗口,给Mobai一个机会成为一个快速发展的领导者。This may explain why Droplet joined the ofo board in October 2016 and had a veto power - the reason for the capital concessions may be largely due to the established fact that the overall market size gap exists, but the differences also lay in the foreshadows. At the end of 2016, Dewey could not accept Droplets proposal to sell ofo to Mobai, even if that was the case. At that time, the daily order volume of ofo was only one third of that of Mobai. 这种转变,从原始的策略,原始策略的怀疑,从而接受资本,然后坚持自我重复,所以稍微迷失在时间的丛林资源。奇怪的是,直到今年5月,Dai Wei还表示,在一次内部会议上,他想独立发展,号召公司员工“战斗到底”。但有趣的是,在本公告发布的前两个月,而采用了动产抵押质押的共享自行车两次在阿里巴巴的17亿7000万元的融资重新回归生活。在那之后,它已经接受了阿里巴巴的新一轮8亿6600万美元融资。Ali流的主持下,我们如何谈论它的“独立”?回头看看,如果我们看看这个旅行革命仔细,我们可以得出另一个令人惊讶的结论:如果Dai Wei能在开始摆脱他的生意的焦虑,并仔细评估入市和博弈策略,相对滞后的策略,他不可能陷入疯狂的补贴反商业道德,和他可以拆除金蝉开始另一段旅程。创新的门也开始接触面上的泡沫。如果“假设”被删除,资源分割和共识的突破最终将成为萧皇的孤独例回来。我们需要的是旅行,连接大闭环。Ali希望Alipay继续保持交通的压力,微信。金沙江,Jingwei的风险资本要资本利得,而Dai Wei是从第一个三线的距离。无论是真正的野心或商业野心,戴维有自己的理想,这注定他失败。同时,我们应该考虑三方利益。Dai Wei,他曾经拒绝了腾讯的提议进入城市,两次拒绝成为并购公司的控制方案。Dai Wei曾呼吁资本尊重企业家的理想。毕竟,创业是一个资源重组,失去调动资源的能力,并拒绝接受约束和资源动员的提交,这样萧皇彻可以不再看到遥远但一旦如此清晰明亮的星星。我们需要记住,任何制衡必须以确保手头的资源可以顺利组合连接。Business Secrets: Growth Metamorphosis People always prefer to believe in the truths that sound universal, and on the other hand they prefer the so-called shortcuts that have been summarized. Over the past few years, selling knowledge anxiety has become a new consumer outlet across the middle class. People have changed their ways to explain operational skills, growth formulas and product design to you. 这些努力总结经验混合在勤奋的鸡汤,吸引远比客观规律本身。我最喜欢的例子是,当电梯上升时,有人跳舞,有人唱歌,有人坐了下来,这些选择成为他们自我提升的解释,当他们到达顶楼。这种虚幻的背景下严重影响人们的注意力惯性。Standing on the shoulders of giants, you can see farther. The overall regulation of this system is far more effective than your height growth and jumping ability. If you grasp any trend of the times, you can probably guarantee the winning side of life. On the other hand, the cruel truth is that choice is more important than effort. We must have a correct understanding of this. In 2018, the world trade protectionism virus continues to breed and spread, the trade war is clouded, the momentum of Global trade recovery is becoming more and more difficult, and the export-oriented consumption pattern has been greatly impacted. 这使得“尾巴的鹅阵”的中国企业进入逃生门。要理解这一点,请摆脱迷信的概念,消费升级和消费下降。事实上,区域市场的增长也可能有刀片的另一端的破坏力,使人们在解释经济增长模式。首先,没有降级消费从失衡之间的人口和产业结构,第一产业增加值,即农业,仅占GDP的2017 7.9%,但农村人口仍将按常住人口的41.48%,而按户籍人口57.8%。至少有三分之一的工作人口仍在农村,这表明中国的基本经济状况仍处于较低水平。舞台展示。在过去的供给与需求之间的矛盾,在中国的经济,尤其是在互联网经济中,渗透力的增长速度比居民收入的增长速度要快得多,这给虚拟经济的机遇,发挥市场的作用,依靠教育者,世界领先的制造能力是的,智能终端设备已经成为移动互联网的初始应答,并已完成所有中国模式与网络连接。地毯上像在圈地的人群覆盖面积大。具有中国特色的自媒体生态是用来创建一个巨大的信息传播方式,这是一个重要的启蒙运动,因为它开辟了三或四条战线的人口思想文艺复兴时期的很多,有趣的标题,但它充满了用户的心理意识和差距用户的消费能力。更准确的说,在高端的消费模式,我们所看到的下降是有限的消费;更多的时候,消费下降只是一个窗帘挂在低收入的人面前,就像有意无意的笑话,外第五环路,这也是中国。Second, consumption upgrading is mostly a state, not a process. Over the past decade, Chinas economic development has experienced three debt cycles, which are the policy root of most "consumption escalation". Jiang Chao, of Haitong Securities, has a sharp interpretation of this: "The first time was in 2008-09, in order to meet the challenges of the global financial crisis, we launched a large debt-raising business sector, plus manufacturing investment. Although we are the first to recover from the global financial crisis, the cost is excessive debt in the corporate sector and excess manufacturing capacity. The second one is 12-13 years. Overcapacity led to another economic downturn. 我们推出了一个政府融资平台筹集了大量债务和增加基础设施投资,但结果是在政府部门的隐性债务大幅增加。第三次是16-17岁。地方债务调整后,经济再次下降,我们发动了一次大规模的举债由居民部门。虽然经济有所企稳,成本是住宅业的负债率上升和房地产泡沫加剧。在过去的18年中,中国的经济经历了一个显著下滑。可以发现,每一次经济衰退过去我们遇到的,我们往往通过借款解决它。每一次,我们可以解决短期的经济问题,但好的时间不长,和经济上的压力,一段时间后会回来。而这背后的原因很简单,因为发展借贷只会造成经济波动,而不是经济增长。问题是,太多的企业在经济波动明显的判断失误,以及资金链的杠杆的目的是把大量的高消耗人的运气。The ultimate result is the distortion of business growth when economic regulation occurs. In 2018, eight companies, such as millet, Weilai automobile, calf electric, mushroom street and Dali Dali, declared their breakage at the opening of the market, while Duoduo and interesting headlines also broke one week after their listing. Behind the huge loss data is a noteworthy phenomenon that their target markets have begun to grow and speed up. 它使用“调速”是合理的,这是更客观和温和的比“停滞”。企业未来的企业必须关注消费从头部和尾部中间的运动。“挤出效应”Lewis拐点和行业洗牌的新的去杠杆周期将导致相同的结果,即,“中端消费的平衡”。This is a trendy change that all people and all enterprises need to pay close attention to urgently. Its respectable to challenge and refuse to pay more attention to enterprises comfortably, but trying to change the rules of economic order, stop the new cycle of flow is no different from singing down Chinas overzealous mood. Either way, it is likely that the harvest will be dismal. In the future, when a new business model emerges as the times require, it is the time when users rush from flow thinking to brand stickiness. Just like the traffic coverage of mobile Internet at the beginning, all models need to rethink the direction and value of the transformation. End Note: If you think, you will be safe. 如果你想的话,你将能够解决障碍。他们通常是不正确的,苛刻的和不舒服,但他们往往是最接近真相。商务公关、宣传和包装,这是另一回事,洞察和心理接受的情况的性质,是最难的两件事。When the internationalization of the Chinese model moves from inland to deep blue, when corporate surplus and personal ambition prevail, the prospects will easily lose focus; entrepreneurs who are familiar with MBA courses do not know these things - but fail to do so for various reasons. We dont know if their internal revaluation is disappointed or renewed, but we also see other companies turning danger into safety in a steady pace - no need to say it clearly, because with a little attention, we have some correct answers in our hearts. In 2018, growth in the United States, the euro area and Chinas economy is slowing down. Without fiscal and monetary stimulus or productivity growth, we must be fully prepared for this trend. Value balance, resource reorganization and trade secrets are three branches drawn from the flourishing trees. This is a re-reading of them, but it is not just about them. 2018,我们已经形成了期待在开放式创新过去的习惯。现在看来,我们也应该用一些自我观察的视角完成对星空中和。再从过去,2019,机会还是有点模糊,但花依然在疯狂的微笑。